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> What is it that makes it so difficult, To get out of the National Conference League?
JamesDee
post Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM
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What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?
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crystal
post Mar 22 2018, 07:52 AM
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QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Altricham went down then they went down again, so don't think its going to be plain sailing next year, the main problem is two up and four down, how is that fair, if we are having four down it should have four up.


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Churton Blue
post Mar 22 2018, 12:18 PM
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QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Interesting questions James.

My view is to a large degree lower league football has gone south. Up to 1958 we had Division Three North and South. Soon as they went the north has lost a number of League Clubs and the south has gained. Larger populations of towns and cities and greater wealth probably explains it.

This movement then filters down to the National League. Next Season there will be 10 ex league clubs playing below the National League in the northern pyramid with only 2 in the south. There will be a much more even split in the National League but since the advent of two up and down between League Two and the National League, 15 places have gone to southern clubs and 5 to northern clubs.

I think this trend will continue in the next decade with clubs like Crewe, Rochdale, Bury and Morecambe falling out of the League to be replaced by the likes of Sutton, Maidstone, Bromley and Ebbsfleet.

There will be exceptions to this but the long term trend is clear in my view.

We can rebuild in the National League North as soon as we rid ourselves of the two year contract players. When we do go back to the National League we need to be a much better run and organised club than we were in 2013 but I am optimistic that we can.
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The Annexe
post Mar 22 2018, 12:21 PM
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QUOTE (crystal @ Mar 22 2018, 07:52 AM) *
QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Altricham went down then they went down again, so don't think its going to be plain sailing next year, the main problem is two up and four down, how is that fair, if we are having four down it should have four up.

You do realise there are two feeder leagues?


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The Annexe
post Mar 22 2018, 12:31 PM
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QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 12:18 PM) *
QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Interesting questions James.

My view is to a large degree lower league football has gone south. Up to 1958 we had Division Three North and South. Soon as they went the north has lost a number of League Clubs and the south has gained. Larger populations of towns and cities and greater wealth probably explains it.

This movement then filters down to the National League. Next Season there will be 10 ex league clubs playing below the National League in the northern pyramid with only 2 in the south. There will be a much more even split in the National League but since the advent of two up and down between League Two and the National League, 15 places have gone to southern clubs and 5 to northern clubs.

I think this trend will continue in the next decade with clubs like Crewe, Rochdale, Bury and Morecambe falling out of the League to be replaced by the likes of Sutton, Maidstone, Bromley and Ebbsfleet.

There will be exceptions to this but the long term trend is clear in my view.

We can rebuild in the National League North as soon as we rid ourselves of the two year contract players. When we do go back to the National League we need to be a much better run and organised club than we were in 2013 but I am optimistic that we can.

Interesting stats you've given, hadn't realised how skewed the north/south split had been in respect of promotions.
Presumably money is an important factor, as the southern teams' crowds aren't bigger overall than northerm teams'.


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Churton Blue
post Mar 22 2018, 07:46 PM
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QUOTE (The Annexe @ Mar 22 2018, 12:31 PM) *
QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 12:18 PM) *
QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Interesting questions James.

My view is to a large degree lower league football has gone south. Up to 1958 we had Division Three North and South. Soon as they went the north has lost a number of League Clubs and the south has gained. Larger populations of towns and cities and greater wealth probably explains it.

This movement then filters down to the National League. Next Season there will be 10 ex league clubs playing below the National League in the northern pyramid with only 2 in the south. There will be a much more even split in the National League but since the advent of two up and down between League Two and the National League, 15 places have gone to southern clubs and 5 to northern clubs.

I think this trend will continue in the next decade with clubs like Crewe, Rochdale, Bury and Morecambe falling out of the League to be replaced by the likes of Sutton, Maidstone, Bromley and Ebbsfleet.

There will be exceptions to this but the long term trend is clear in my view.

We can rebuild in the National League North as soon as we rid ourselves of the two year contract players. When we do go back to the National League we need to be a much better run and organised club than we were in 2013 but I am optimistic that we can.

Interesting stats you've given, hadn't realised how skewed the north/south split had been in respect of promotions.
Presumably money is an important factor, as the southern teams' crowds aren't bigger overall than northerm teams'.


Like most things it is complex.

One fact that can not be denied though in terms of population statistically London and the South East should have 25 clubs in the top five tiers of English football but there are actually 38 clubs.

Draw your own conclusions on that.
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Neil Fishers Big...
post Mar 23 2018, 01:27 PM
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QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 07:46 PM) *
QUOTE (The Annexe @ Mar 22 2018, 12:31 PM) *
QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 12:18 PM) *
QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Interesting questions James.

My view is to a large degree lower league football has gone south. Up to 1958 we had Division Three North and South. Soon as they went the north has lost a number of League Clubs and the south has gained. Larger populations of towns and cities and greater wealth probably explains it.

This movement then filters down to the National League. Next Season there will be 10 ex league clubs playing below the National League in the northern pyramid with only 2 in the south. There will be a much more even split in the National League but since the advent of two up and down between League Two and the National League, 15 places have gone to southern clubs and 5 to northern clubs.

I think this trend will continue in the next decade with clubs like Crewe, Rochdale, Bury and Morecambe falling out of the League to be replaced by the likes of Sutton, Maidstone, Bromley and Ebbsfleet.

There will be exceptions to this but the long term trend is clear in my view.

We can rebuild in the National League North as soon as we rid ourselves of the two year contract players. When we do go back to the National League we need to be a much better run and organised club than we were in 2013 but I am optimistic that we can.

Interesting stats you've given, hadn't realised how skewed the north/south split had been in respect of promotions.
Presumably money is an important factor, as the southern teams' crowds aren't bigger overall than northerm teams'.


Like most things it is complex.

One fact that can not be denied though in terms of population statistically London and the South East should have 25 clubs in the top five tiers of English football but there are actually 38 clubs.

Draw your own conclusions on that.

The simple clue is money! Clubs have to be fully professional from top to bottom and have plenty of money, (in most cases)
Does anybody really think that Forest Green would’ve been promoted without their “Sugar daddy?” of course not, i accept the point about Tranmere though, but there are more clubs becoming fully professional and having sugar daddies.
NO part time club has been promoted from the Conference/ National League.


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The Annexe
post Mar 23 2018, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 12:18 PM) *
My view is to a large degree lower league football has gone south. Up to 1958 we had Division Three North and South. Soon as they went the north has lost a number of League Clubs and the south has gained. Larger populations of towns and cities and greater wealth probably explains it.

You are quite correct. Out of interest I looked at the Div 3 North & South tables for 1957 when I started watching Chester. In the northern division, 13 of the 24 teams are now in non-league plus two more who went down and are now back in the FL. By contrast, in the southern division only 2 of the 24 teams are now non-league with two more who went down and are now back in the FL. That is a big disparity.
I guess some of that reflects the fact that pre- and post-war the huge industrial populations of the north were able to support a large number of teams. As the north has changed then the fortunes of many of these clubs declined.


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MOC
post Mar 24 2018, 11:24 AM
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QUOTE (Neil Fishers Biggest Fan @ Mar 23 2018, 03:27 PM) *
QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 07:46 PM) *
QUOTE (The Annexe @ Mar 22 2018, 12:31 PM) *
QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 12:18 PM) *
QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Interesting questions James.

My view is to a large degree lower league football has gone south. Up to 1958 we had Division Three North and South. Soon as they went the north has lost a number of League Clubs and the south has gained. Larger populations of towns and cities and greater wealth probably explains it.

This movement then filters down to the National League. Next Season there will be 10 ex league clubs playing below the National League in the northern pyramid with only 2 in the south. There will be a much more even split in the National League but since the advent of two up and down between League Two and the National League, 15 places have gone to southern clubs and 5 to northern clubs.

I think this trend will continue in the next decade with clubs like Crewe, Rochdale, Bury and Morecambe falling out of the League to be replaced by the likes of Sutton, Maidstone, Bromley and Ebbsfleet.

There will be exceptions to this but the long term trend is clear in my view.

We can rebuild in the National League North as soon as we rid ourselves of the two year contract players. When we do go back to the National League we need to be a much better run and organised club than we were in 2013 but I am optimistic that we can.

Interesting stats you've given, hadn't realised how skewed the north/south split had been in respect of promotions.
Presumably money is an important factor, as the southern teams' crowds aren't bigger overall than northerm teams'.


Like most things it is complex.

One fact that can not be denied though in terms of population statistically London and the South East should have 25 clubs in the top five tiers of English football but there are actually 38 clubs.

Draw your own conclusions on that.

The simple clue is money! Clubs have to be fully professional from top to bottom and have plenty of money, (in most cases)
Does anybody really think that Forest Green would’ve been promoted without their “Sugar daddy?” of course not, i accept the point about Tranmere though, but there are more clubs becoming fully professional and having sugar daddies.
NO part time club has been promoted from the Conference/ National League.


In recent years they haven't, but go back 20+ years and the likes of Macclesfield and Scarborough were part-time when they got promoted from the Conference (in an era of very few full-time teams).
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captain duff
post Mar 24 2018, 06:02 PM
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NFBF is right, it is about money, but money that is divorced from the actual support and income that a club gets, and that is because UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations (that are far from perfect but better than nothing) don'rt extend to non-league. The result is that significant numbers of otherwise small clubs like Forrest Gump have millions pumped into them and afford playing budgets that we could only dream of.

That said, most of the time the money doesn't guarantee success. Over the past few years Paul Casson at Barrow has probably had around millions in extra funding put into them compared to our own finances (probably around £3-4 millions difference), and yet they are still only just above the drop zone themselves.


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JamesDee
post Mar 26 2018, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE (Churton Blue @ Mar 22 2018, 10:48 PM) *
QUOTE (JamesDee @ Mar 22 2018, 01:26 AM) *
What is it that makes it so difficult to get promoted out of the National Conference League?

This is a question I've puzzled over but can not find an answer to. When Tranmere Rovers came down into the Conference they thought they would go straight back up but we knew better. Then, how long have Wrexham been down here in this Conference league? One also has to ask how come Macclesfield Town are again in the running for promotion this year and how have they achieved that prospect on their budget, location and population? Stockport County fell out of League 2 and look where they are now! Once you fall out of the League and come into Level 5 it is so difficult to get back out. Why is this? What are the clues and keys to getting promotion?

How long will we be in the National Conference North after this year's and (don't forget), the previous year's disaster that preceded this year's even worse performance?


Interesting questions James.

My view is to a large degree lower league football has gone south. Up to 1958 we had Division Three North and South. Soon as they went the north has lost a number of League Clubs and the south has gained. Larger populations of towns and cities and greater wealth probably explains it.

This movement then filters down to the National League. Next Season there will be 10 ex league clubs playing below the National League in the northern pyramid with only 2 in the south. There will be a much more even split in the National League but since the advent of two up and down between League Two and the National League, 15 places have gone to southern clubs and 5 to northern clubs.

I think this trend will continue in the next decade with clubs like Crewe, Rochdale, Bury and Morecambe falling out of the League to be replaced by the likes of Sutton, Maidstone, Bromley and Ebbsfleet.

There will be exceptions to this but the long term trend is clear in my view.

We can rebuild in the National League North as soon as we rid ourselves of the two year contract players. When we do go back to the National League we need to be a much better run and organised club than we were in 2013 but I am optimistic that we can.



The above post and a later post you made provided very interesting statistics and indicates that you have obviously been making quite a study of these matters.

Going back some sixty or seventy years older supporters will recall the days when Chester FC were in the Third Division (North) and often ended up at the bottom but we did not worry because we were always voted back in by re-election by other teams in that League. A team from New Brighton however never made it back but just went away and folded. I mention this because I would be interested to learn of your analysis for the future forecasting the demise of the likes of Crewe Alexander, Rochdale and Bury but you do not include the reborn Accrington Stanley although you do include the demise of johnny-come-lately Morecambe. You don't however include Macclesfield's or Fylde's demise though! Why? Selective thinking perhaps or methodology?
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Lobster
post Mar 27 2018, 12:08 PM
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I'd say we're making quite easy work of getting out of this division.
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